Everyone Should be Afraid of Asymptomatic People! Right?

Influenza and Other Coronaviruses Don’t Do It! But, Does SARS-CoV-2 Spread from Presymptomatic/Asymptomatic People?

Apparently, SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the novel symptomatic condition COVID-19 transmits exceptionally well when the carrier has NO symptoms.

This was the basis for ALL pandemic public health measures…masks, social distancing, lockdowns, business closures, etc. Our esteemed public health officials implemented these measures because they said that anyone who was infected with SARS-CoV-2 was a danger to others because they could transmit the virus without even knowing they had it.

More recently, we are now dealing with vaccine passports/mandates, and messaging from our governments and legacy media companies telling people not to go near their unvaccinated family and friends because they are dangerous, even if they have no symptoms. I smell something fishy here.

To be very clear on this…If asymptomatic/presymptomatic transmission is not common, absolutely none of what has happened during this pandemic was necessary! NONE AT ALL! Keep that in mind as you continue reading. Below is a review of the scientific information regarding asymptomatic transmission in the unvaccinated. I will be writing another article on whether it is possible in the vaccinated population.

Is Unvaccinated Asymptomatic Transmission a Significant Risk?

The ability for asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers and presymptomatic cases of COVID-19 to transmit the virus to others is difficult to study and much of the literature on this topic comes from studies completed early in the pandemic. However, data from that period can be used to provide an understanding of the risk of asymptomatic transmission from unvaccinated individuals.

Early Pandemic Data

A study that entered preprint in March of 2020, using a mathematical model based on early data from China and a small number of studies, suggested that asymptomatic transmission is equal to symptomatic transmission (1). However, this paper remains in preprint status as of November 2021, indicating it did not pass peer review.

A review study published in May of 2020 concluded that the majority of transmission occurs from asymptomatic infections and the presymptomatic phase of cases (2). In review of the literature cited by this paper, the authors based their conclusion on viral load data from RT-PCR testing, a few small cluster studies showing possible asymptomatic transmission, and studies estimating the proportion of asymptomatic infections in the population. It is also important to note that this paper cites the above-mentioned paper that has yet to pass peer review for over a year and a half.

While most of the small case studies cited in the above noted May 2020 paper show that asymptomatic/presymptomatic transmission is possible, they do not show it as the major mode of transmission. One cited study indicates that presymptomatic transmission accounts for 20% of transmission and found no asymptomatic transmission (3). Another cited study suggests presymptomatic transmission accounts for only 6.4% of transmission (4). A third study followed 24 confirmed asymptomatic infections and only found evidence of transmission in 1 of the 24 participants (5).

Additionally, viral load alone cannot determine the risk of transmission from asymptomatic infection. For instance, viral load of influenza in asymptomatic and presymptomatic infections can reach levels similar to symptomatic cases; however, it is well established that the vast majority of influenza transmission occurs from symptomatic individuals (6). Additionally, while asymptomatic infections may present a high viral load in the mucosal membrane and upper respiratory tract, they are less likely to expel as much virus as those with symptoms simply because they lack symptoms (coughing, sneezing, etc.).

A small cohort study from May 2020 also suggested a high rate of presymptomatic transmission (44%). However, the authors made calculation errors in their initial paper and had to make a correction following publication. The correction stated that presymptomatic transmission accounted for 37–48% of transmission versus the originally published 46–55% (7).

It seems that initial lockdown measures were based on early data suggesting that asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission was driving a non-trivial proportion of population transmission. However, data published later in 2020 challenged these earlier findings.

Later Pandemic Data

A study published in Nature Communications in November 2020 found zero evidence of asymptomatic transmission (8). Nearly 10,000,000 residents of Wuhan, China were screened, and 300 asymptomatic infections were identified. A total of 1174 close contacts of the asymptomatic participants were tracked and tested for COVID-19, none of which tested positive. Additionally, the researchers were unable to culture the virus from the 300 asymptomatic carrier samples, suggesting that the innate immune response had neutralized the virus in these samples. This would indicate that expelled virus from these individuals would not be infectious. While it is possible that false-positive RT-PCR testing contributed to these findings, SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing was positive in 190 of the 300 asymptomatic cases.

Madewell et al. published a meta-analysis in December 2020 of 54 studies reporting on household secondary transmission rates (9). The findings of this meta-analysis report that the risk of asymptomatic/presymptomatic transmission is only 0.7%.

There was also one study from early 2020 that followed 455 contacts of a confirmed asymptomatic infection and found zero evidence of transmission (10).

The evolving evidence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics before widespread vaccination suggests that asymptomatic/presymptomatic transmission is possible in the unvaccinated; however, it is likely rare and not a major driver of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, as of June 2020, the World Health Organization advised that most COVID-19 transmission occurs through symptomatic cases (11).

The available evidence accumulated by the end of 2020 and the World Health Organization’s stance on asymptomatic transmission calls into question the necessity of much of the pandemic lockdown measures. Additionally, since unvaccinated, asymptomatic/presymptomatic cases are at low risk for transmission, the necessity of COVID-19 vaccine passports and mandates is also called into question.

Just A Thought

Maybe you have been thinking along the following lines also…..It does not appear that our leaders and health officials have our best interests in mind.

So, the question I keep asking is…Who’s interests do they have in mind?

Then again, maybe I am the stupid one.